And the question was "What pace will Paul average in the Trailblazer 10k tommorrow?"
Seriously, last year I did an 8:20 pace (no timing chips so you have to time yourself if you want accuracy...they said 8:24). The prediction based on my April 8:30-pace half-marathon is 8:05. I think I can tough it out for such a short race and do sub-8:00, so I'll try for that. One concern is the expected huge turnout of 1000+ which is 2-3x last year I think. Might be crowded for the first mile or two.
To hit this pace, I plan to bang right up to an HR of 145...pushing it up to 155 by the end of the race if I want to hold my pace (due to muscle fatigue the same pace takes more aerobic output).
But compared to marathons, 10k races are simple...just put the hammer down and go.
Will it hurt? Yes it will....but it's also fun to run fast. You can't do it every day so when you do it, it's something very special.
Mercifully 10ks are short, the whole thing should be done in 49:48, give or take.