10k PR possible?

Moonlight 10k coming up on Friday night.

I did a search of all my runs that were faster than 8:15 pace and least 5 miles long and came up with  three:

Date	Miles	Pace	BPM	WHR%	Elev+	Elev-	YPB
2009-09-27 Sun	6.3	7:56	153.4	88.0	94.3	90.5	1.451
2011-10-08 Sat	6.2	8:07	142.9	79.4	16.7	18.5	1.513
2013-09-17 Tue	5.0	8:02	139.8	76.9	19.5	19.9	1.598
Summary	17.5	8:02	145.7	81.7	130.5	128.9	1.515

The 2009 run was my PR in the 10k (8:00.5 min/mile pace actual), the 2011 run was a time trial that Jill had me do in my CIM marathon buildup. 

The 3rd run is the one I banged out Tuesday. Notice how much lower my HR was even though I'm in the same ballpark for distance and pace. 

Here's the splits:

2013-09-17 Tue
Split	Miles	Pace	HR	% WHR	YPB
1	1.00	8:39	138.8	76.1	1.465
2	1.00	7:54	135.0	73.0	1.641
3	1.00	7:48	140.0	77.0	1.610
4	1.00	7:53	140.0	77.0	1.594
5	1.00	7:50	145.0	81.1	1.561
6	0.03	11:27	144.0	80.3	1.066
Sum	5.0	8:02	139.8	76.9	1.598

This run was not quite all-out...Garmin gives it a TE ("training effect" ) if  4.0 which is "highly improving". If it has been  an all out effort it would have rated it 5.0 or "overreaching". I will consider my race a failure if I don't hit 5.0 8)

So the question is, can I PR Friday night?.....I haven't done the best 10k training but it seems I have a shot. The course is totally familiar to me..the only downsides are: it may be crowded, at least for a while, and there is about 2.5 miles on the levy...some loose pea gravel on dirt there.

But it's going to be close and I suspect I'll be doing well to shave 30s off my time. Unlikely to be more than 60s.  Really going to have to watch those tangents..easy to lose 10-15 secs right there! 

But there's nothing like a race for drawing out a little extra oomph ;)

The moon is super bright already ("harvest moon") we all should be able to see just fine assuming the fog doesn't roll in. (But if you know SF area weather you know that this time of year is the best time to visit: No fog, no rain)

Today I did my last run before the race: a 3 mile  (the shortest distance I run) I felt pretty good considering yesterday ...but didn't let the HR get up to MAF...taking it a bit easy.

2013-09-18 Wed
Split	Miles	Pace	HR	% WHR	Elev+	Elev-	YPB
1	1.00	9:03	119.3	60.0	4.1	2.3	1.632
2	1.00	9:16	121.0	61.5	15.2	11.1	1.577
3	1.00	9:15	119.0	59.8	5.2	10.4	1.597
4	0.24	8:54	119.0	59.8	0.0	0.0	1.660
Sum	3.2	9:10	119.7	60.4	24.5	23.7	1.595

In the 200 runs I've done since 2008 that are between 3 and 5 miles in length, it's the 4th most efficient. (!)